USD Index and Gold Trend

Gold has tested the 1343-1345 2 times because of the weak USD index. There is a big gap from 1343 to 1348 and gold will make a correction if the USD index makes a recovery of recent sell-off.

The 1331-1333 is an important zone to watch for gold correction. Gold will drop fast after breaking the 1331-1333 and it may drop to 1299-1301.

Flynn testimony, Mr. Trump Tax Reform and Gold Direction

Gold moved from 1272 to 1289 after news of Mr. Flynn testimony, however gold failed to close above the 1285 level to continues its short term up trend. Gold then dropped to test the 1271-1272 when US tax reform  plan was approved during the weekend.

The US Dollar is moving up and gold is trading from 1276 to 1271 after tax reform. Gold will drop to 1248-1249 if gold breaks the 1271-1272 zone today. A break of the 1271-1272 zone will start a new trend and gold will escape the choppy market which has lasted for many weeks

Dec 1 – USDJPY and Gold Trend for Dec 2017

The USDJPY has made a strong bounce from the 110.90-111.00 zone to 112.50 and as a result, gold has been sold off from 1295 to 1270. Gold is currently going up or down following the USDJPY and it has been moving from the range 1265-1295 for many days.

Gold is expected to trade choppy from 1265-1295 until it breaks out of this range to start a new trend. The US Dec rate hike may be an event to trigger a break of the 1265 so that gold will drop to 1220 or gold will move to 1350 if the market returns to safe asset because of North Korea tension or a crash of UK stock market.

Nov 28, 2017 – US GDP Report and Gold Trend

Mr. Powell has confirmed the continuation of current Fed monetary policy which means that the Fed will raise interest rate in Dec, 2017.  The USD has been up since then and which makes gold failing to break the 1296-1297 zone.  Gold is currently moving up or down following the USDJPY and the USD GDP report at 13:30 GMT.

North Korea made an ICBM test yesterday, but gold didn’t go up as a safe heaven assets. Gold is following USD index and if the USDJPY confirms a bottom around 110.90-111.00 then gold will drop to test the 1265-1270 soon.

The 1291-1293 is an important zone to watch for gold down trend. Gold will be sold off to 1283-1285 if it can break the 1291-1293 before the US GDP Report at 13:30 GMT.

A bad US GDP Report release will make USDJPY to get sold off and gold will move to 1305-1307 and further.

Can new Fed chair bring negative gold signal?

Gold has moved from 1265 to 1295-1298 after the new Fed Chair announcement some weeks ago. The USD has been sold off in the last 3-4 weeks, however today the new Fed Chair, Mr Powell, will have a meeting in Congress and will speak about raising interest rate plan and bank regulations.

Gold is moving following the USDJPY and it has strong support around 110.90-111.00 zone. If the USD moves up during the new Fed Chair speaking and the USDPY confirms the end of its long term correction, gold will resume its down trend and it will drop to test the 1275-1280 zone.

However, gold will move up to 1305-1307 if gold cannot drop bellow the 1289-1291 during Mr. Powell’s speaking and later at 20:00 GMT, another speaking about monetary policy by Mr Mnuchin – Treasury Secretary

Gold price after black Friday

Gold made a correction to test the 1286-1288 zone during Black Friday even thought the USD as sold off. Gold is currently going up or down as a risk on or off following USDJPY.

Gold has tested the 1286-1288 and it is expected to move up to test the 1296-1298 zone again. A break-out of the 1296-1298 gold will move to 1305-1307, however a false break-out of 1296-1298 gold will be sold off to 1286-1288 or 1278-1280.

Gold short term trend is up and the test of 1296-1298 is high possibility after black Firday

Will gold break the 1295-1300?

Gold has dropped from 1355 to 1265 when the Korea news faded. and Gold has been trading from 1265 to 1295 for many days. Every time gold moved to 1295 it got strong sold off, however gold has a big chance to break the 1295 this time because it is going up instead of dropping down when there is news of US interest rate hike Dec 2017.


A successful break-out of the 1295 will start a new trend and gold will move up to test the 1350-1355. However, gold will drop to test the 126–1265 one if it fails to break the 1295-1300.

There is US Holiday this weekend and strong volatile is expected to during this period – a strong up or down movement may happen this time

Nov 22 FOMC Meeting Minutes and new Gold Trend.

Gold has been trading choppy from 1265 to 1285 for many weeks and it is waiting for a key event to trigger a new long term trend. This new long term trend will push gold to 1350 if gold breaks the 1285 successfully or it will drop back to 1220 if gold is sold off around 1280-1285 zone.

The market is expecting the Fed will raise interest rate in Dec, 2017. If today, Nov 22 FOMC meeting, doesn’t confirm that the Dec interest rate hike, gold will break the 1285 to start a new trend

Gold Signal after the March Fed FOMC Minutes and Trump-Xi Jingping Meeting

On Wednesday April 5, the US ADP Employment was released at 263K, a very good number, which is a negative gold signal. The US Dollar Index went up quickly, and gold dropped quickly from 1254 to 1244 after the US ADP report.

At 18:00 GMT, the Fed FOMC Minutes announced that the Fed would reduced its balance sheet of $4.5 trillion this year which made a strong stock market sold-off and gold made a reversal from 1243 to 1258.

Today April 6, gold is expected to trade from 1251 to 1261 to wait for Trump-Xi Jingping meeting. The outcome of this meeting will start a new gold trend, this means gold will move to 1290-1300 if the up trend is intact and gold will drop to 1220-1230 if there is no major economic conflict.

gold 1251-1261 range

gold 1251-1261 range

Today best strategy is to wait for range break-out to buy or sell gold following a new trend which is developed after Trump-Xi Jingping meeting

Gold price is up in Q1 2017

Gold price is lightly up in Q1 2017 because Mr. Trump hasn’t showed any real tax cut and fiscal spending plans. The US Dollar has been sold off (figure 1) and gold has been bought heavily after the Fed rate hike announcement. Gold has moved from 1198-1260 in Q1 2017 several times following Mr Trump policies news and Fed raising interest rate


Dollar sold-off q1 2017

Dollar sold-off q1 2017

Gold long term trend is up while its short term trend is in consolidation to wait for April 3 US ISM report and FOMC Meeting minutes on April 5. Gold will move up to test the long term resistant zone 1259-1261 if the US ISM misses the 57.0 expectation.

gold short term trend consolidation

gold short term trend consolidation

Gold investors and traders world wide will closely watch the gold price movement and short term break-out of the following zone 1259-1261, 1249-1251 for up trend continuation. However, gold will make a strong correction if it breaks the 1239-1241 zone today or tomorrow.