USD Index and Gold Trend

The USD Dollar Index has reached 109, the dollar was at yearly and multi-year highs against many currencies such as Euro, Yen ….. because the Fed would raise interest rate by 0.75 in May, June, and 1.0 in July to keep US inflation down.

US Dollar Index in July 2022

The aggressive US interest policy has caused gold to drop from 1812-1814 to 1681-1685. But, the Fed officials has confirmed that they will not raise US interest rate by 1.0 and the ECB surprise rate hike by 0.5 in July 22 has made gold to end its drop around 1683-1685.

Gold Sold Off from 1812 to 1681 in July 2022

Identifying a correction gold trend is a key to successful gold trading, The US Dollar Index is the key indicator for gold direction, it is up or down following the Fed monetary policy which requires gold traders to watch the FOMC Meeting minutes and Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday July 27, 2022.

A hawkish FOMC Meeting Minutes next week will cause gold to resume its down trend and it will drop to test 1683-1685. From July 22 to July 26, gold is making a correction and it may go to 1745-1751 or further to 1775-1786 if the US Dollar is sold off heavily before the Wednesday July 27 FOMC Meeting.

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USD Index and Gold Trend After Mr. Biden took office.

Gold was sold off heavily from 1855-1856 to 1803 on Friday and Monday Jan 17. However, gold has went up from the 1803-1805 to test the 1855-1857.

Gold tested the 1855-1857 and it was sold off quickly to the 1832-1833 zone before Mr. Biden took an oath of office.

Gold made a quick reversal and it broke the 1853-1856 to go to 1870-1875 because gold investors are expecting a big 1.9Tn stimulus package gone through.

Gold tested the 1875 and it is dropping to test the 1850-1855. Will the 1850-1855 hold its support during today New York trading? gold trend will be up if the 1850-1855 is not broken.

Why gold is back above 1800 after Thanksgiving

Gold broke the 1800-1801 to drop to 1761-1765 before Thanksgiving because of low trading volume and Fed meeting minutes suggested no stimulus package.

Breaking 1800 to drop to 1761-1765
Strong support at 1765 and news of new proposed stimulus causing gold to go above 1809

On Dec 1, 2020 gold made a recovery from 1776 to 1732 because there is news of a new proposed stimulus package which is positive for gold.

On Dec 2, 2020 gold made a spike to 1832 and it is dropping to the 1813-1818 zone wait for more stimulus news.

Gold is waiting for stimulus approval news to go to 1850 if gold cannot drop bellow the 1809-1811 zone. However, gold will drop to 1801 or further to 1789 if the new stimulus package does not get through again.

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Gold direction after the FOMC Meeting Minutes

The FOMC Meeting Minutes on Nov 25, 2020 is saying that the Fed will not implement more stimulus. However, gold did not drop to test the 1800-1801 to break it to continue its down trend to 1761-1765.

Today is Thanksgiving Holiday so gold has low trading volume and gold is expected to trade from 1801 to 1818.

The 1818 is an important level to watch for gold trend reversal, gold short term trend will be up if gold breaks the 1818.

If gold fails to break the 1818, the down trend is intact and gold is expected to drop to test the 1800-1810 zone.

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Gold may drop to 1765 during US Thanksgiving Holiday?

Gold dropped to 1800-1801 yesterday – Nov 23 2020, after breaking the long term support zone 1848-1851.

Gold is making a bounce to 1811-1815 after testing the 1801-1803. Gold short term trend is down, so it may drop to test the 1800-1801 again.

US GDP report at 13:30 GMT and FOMC Meeting Minutes at 18:00 GMT will set a new trend for gold.

After US GDP release, gold will go back to 1835 or 1851 if the 1800-1801 holds its support. If gold breaks the 1800-1801, it will drop to 1765.

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Will gold go to 1800

Gold have tested the 1760-1765 long term resistant zone in the last 2 days because the USD is sold off. However, gold has rejected the zone 1760-1765 and it is expected to drop to the 1730-1740 if the USD makes its correction.

Will gold break the 1760-1765 to go to 1800 to continues its short term up trend?

Gold fails to break the 1729-1731

Gold went to 1738 during London trading session by breaking the 1729-1731. However, gold dropped from 1738 to 1728 and then it was sold off heavily from 1728 to 1720 in 5 minutes.

Gold have failed to break the 1729-1731 and it seems that gold short term up trend is making a reversal.

Gold is expected to drop to 1718 or 1705-1708 after the false break-out of 11729-1731

Flynn testimony, Mr. Trump Tax Reform and Gold Direction

Gold moved from 1272 to 1289 after news of Mr. Flynn testimony, however gold failed to close above the 1285 level to continues its short term up trend. Gold then dropped to test the 1271-1272 when US tax reform  plan was approved during the weekend.

The US Dollar is moving up and gold is trading from 1276 to 1271 after tax reform. Gold will drop to 1248-1249 if gold breaks the 1271-1272 zone today. A break of the 1271-1272 zone will start a new trend and gold will escape the choppy market which has lasted for many weeks

Dec 1 – USDJPY and Gold Trend for Dec 2017

The USDJPY has made a strong bounce from the 110.90-111.00 zone to 112.50 and as a result, gold has been sold off from 1295 to 1270. Gold is currently going up or down following the USDJPY and it has been moving from the range 1265-1295 for many days.

Gold is expected to trade choppy from 1265-1295 until it breaks out of this range to start a new trend. The US Dec rate hike may be an event to trigger a break of the 1265 so that gold will drop to 1220 or gold will move to 1350 if the market returns to safe asset because of North Korea tension or a crash of UK stock market.

Nov 28, 2017 – US GDP Report and Gold Trend

Mr. Powell has confirmed the continuation of current Fed monetary policy which means that the Fed will raise interest rate in Dec, 2017.  The USD has been up since then and which makes gold failing to break the 1296-1297 zone.  Gold is currently moving up or down following the USDJPY and the USD GDP report at 13:30 GMT.

North Korea made an ICBM test yesterday, but gold didn’t go up as a safe heaven assets. Gold is following USD index and if the USDJPY confirms a bottom around 110.90-111.00 then gold will drop to test the 1265-1270 soon.

The 1291-1293 is an important zone to watch for gold down trend. Gold will be sold off to 1283-1285 if it can break the 1291-1293 before the US GDP Report at 13:30 GMT.

A bad US GDP Report release will make USDJPY to get sold off and gold will move to 1305-1307 and further.