Gold Signal after the March Fed FOMC Minutes and Trump-Xi Jingping Meeting

On Wednesday April 5, the US ADP Employment was released at 263K, a very good number, which is a negative gold signal. The US Dollar Index went up quickly, and gold dropped quickly from 1254 to 1244 after the US ADP report.

At 18:00 GMT, the Fed FOMC Minutes announced that the Fed would reduced its balance sheet of $4.5 trillion this year which made a strong stock market sold-off and gold made a reversal from 1243 to 1258.

Today April 6, gold is expected to trade from 1251 to 1261 to wait for Trump-Xi Jingping meeting. The outcome of this meeting will start a new gold trend, this means gold will move to 1290-1300 if the up trend is intact and gold will drop to 1220-1230 if there is no major economic conflict.

gold 1251-1261 range

gold 1251-1261 range

Today best strategy is to wait for range break-out to buy or sell gold following a new trend which is developed after Trump-Xi Jingping meeting

Gold price is up in Q1 2017

Gold price is lightly up in Q1 2017 because Mr. Trump hasn’t showed any real tax cut and fiscal spending plans. The US Dollar has been sold off (figure 1) and gold has been bought heavily after the Fed rate hike announcement. Gold has moved from 1198-1260 in Q1 2017 several times following Mr Trump policies news and Fed raising interest rate

 

Dollar sold-off q1 2017

Dollar sold-off q1 2017

Gold long term trend is up while its short term trend is in consolidation to wait for April 3 US ISM report and FOMC Meeting minutes on April 5. Gold will move up to test the long term resistant zone 1259-1261 if the US ISM misses the 57.0 expectation.

gold short term trend consolidation

gold short term trend consolidation

Gold investors and traders world wide will closely watch the gold price movement and short term break-out of the following zone 1259-1261, 1249-1251 for up trend continuation. However, gold will make a strong correction if it breaks the 1239-1241 zone today or tomorrow.

Gold after the Fed and Brexit Article 50

The UK triggered the official Brexit process but gold and forex pair made limited movement yesterday. Gold has moved from 1247 to 1255 for many hours to wait for a break-out of the 1248-1257 to start a new trend.

The USD Dollar Index has gone up after the Euro committee made a correction to its momentary policy announcement yesterday and Fed official Eric Rosengren said there would be three more rate hikes this year. Gold has been traded around 1248-1251 zone for the entire today’s Asian and Euro trading sessions.

Gold Trend is in consolidation

Gold Trend is in consolidation

Gold trend is in consolidation to wait for U.S jobless and U.S GDP reports at 8:30 AM, the released number of these two economic reports will make a strong gold price movement to start a new trend in which the 1255-1257 is an important zone to watch up-trend.

Will gold make a correction?

Thursday, March 23, 2017

Gold has moved from 1198 to 1251 because the US Dollar has dropped quite hard on a more dovish Fed and concern over Trump administration policies.

The USDJPY dropped bellow the 111.60-112.00 zone which was a positives signal for gold up trend. The USDPY break-out was not convincing so gold failed to close above the 1251 level yesterday March 22

JPYUSD break-out bellow 11.60-112.00 hasn’t confirmed, yet?

The failure to close above the 1251 yesterday and reversal pattern on H4 chart  makes gold into consolidation. Gold have to break the 1248-1251 to continue its up trend to move to 1261-1261

Gold H4 Chart on March 23

Today March 23, 2017 – gold is expected to trade in consolidation from 1251 to 1241 to wait for the two important events – Job report at 12:30 GMT and Mrs Yellen speaking at 12:45 GMT. These two events will make strong gold movement and it will break-out of the 1241-1251 zone to continue its up trend or make a correction.

From the technical analysis, the 1248-1251 becomes a key zone to watch for gold direction until 12:00 GMT. Gold will drop to 1239-1241 if it is sold off because of profit taking by gold buyers to prepare for the two US important events at 12:30 GMT and 12:45 GMT