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USD Index and Gold Trend

The USD Dollar Index has been in an up trend since the start of the Russia Ukraine war and there were news that the Fed would raise interest rate by 0.75 in May, June, and July to keep US inflation down.

The Fed has confirmed that US Interest rate would be raised by 0.5 in June and July 2022 in May 12-13 which caused the US Dollar Index to drop from 105 to 101.90-102

US Dollar Index Chart

US Dollar Index Chart

 

Gold trend is up or down following US Dollar Index recently and it is ignoring the Russia Ukraine war. As a result of US Dollar Index going down from 105 to 101.90, gold has gone up from 1786 to 1865 from May 13 to May 24

XAUUSD Gold Chart May 13 to May 24

XAUUSD Gold Chart May 13 to May 24

 

Identifying a correction gold trend is a key to successful gold trading, The US Dollar Index is the key indicator for gold direction, it is up or down following the Fed monetary policy which requires gold traders to watch the FOMC Meeting minutes and speeches by the Fed chairman, Mr. Powell

Use this tool to view gold buy or sell trend vs USD Index

Gold trend after Mr. Powell 50pbs hike in May comment vs Russia Ukraine war

Gold trend was up from 1921 (April 4, 2022) to 1995-1998 (April 18, 2022) because the Russia Ukraine did not reach a peace deal after many weeks of crisis.

Gold trend suddenly turned down  because it has been sold off heavily from 1995 to 1939-1941 in the last 3 days because US Treasury Yield has gone up to 3%.

God failed to break the 1939-1941 to continue its short term down trend after Mr. Powell 50pbs hike in May comment. Mr. Powell hawkish rate comment is suggesting gold to go down, but there is news that Russia has taken control of Mariupol which is supporting gold to go up.

 

Gold-Trend-Powell-50pbs-Hike-Russia-Ukraine

Gold-Trend-Powell-50pbs-Hike-Russia-Ukraine

Gold has been consolidating from 1939-1959 for many hours while to wait for a break-out of the 1939-1959 to start a new trend.

Case 1: gold will be sold off to 1925-1930 and further if USD Index goes up following Mr. Powell comments.

Case 2: Gold will go up to 1968-1975 or 1995-1998 if gold goes up following Russia Ukraine crisis.

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Gold market analysis and gold signal after Mr. Powell speaking for Feb 24, 2021

Gold was sold off heavily from 1810-1811 to 1795-1796 before Mr. Powell speaking. And a Sell gold signal at 1810-1811 was executed for around 130 pips profit on Feb 23, 2021

However, gold went from 1796 back to the 1811-1813 during Mr. Powell speaking because Mr. Powell said that the Fed would keep the current interest rate and momentary policies.

Sell Gold Signal 1810-1811 before Mr. Powell’ speaking

Gold is expected to trade from 1798 to 1815 to wait for a new trend after Mr. Powell’ speech. Gold is expected to make big movement to 1831-1833 or 1848-1851 if gold breaks the 1813-1815 zone

The 1813-1815 is the key zone for short term gold trend

Failing to break the 1813-1815 is bearish and gold sell signal will be formed around 1813-1815. The 1813-1815 is the key zone to watch for bull/bear fighting for gold direction.

Gold Resistant Zones: 1813-1815, 1829-1833

Gold Support Zones: 1798-1801, 1781-1783, 1773-1775, 1763-1765

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Gold market analysis and gold signal after US NFP for Feb 8, 2021

Gold was choppy from 1796-1806 after US NFP report last Friday. However, gold was not sold off to continue its down trend, but it went up to 1813-1815 because of weal USD Index.

Gold has gone to 1813-1815 because of weak USD index – positive signal for gold

It is trading around 1813-1815 and the short term trend is up. Gold is expected to test the 1818-1821 or 1831-1835 if gold breaks the 1816-1821 zone.

If gold cannot break the 1816-1821, gold will be sold off to resume its medium term down trend.

Gold Resistant Zones: 1833-1835, 1843-1845, 1853-1855

Gold Support Zones: 1813-1815, 1800-1805, 1785-1790

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Gold market analysis and trading signals for Feb 4, 2021

Gold did not break the 1831 after good US ADP and ISM reports yesterday. But it closed around 1835-1836 and the market did not have bearish or bullish gold signal on Feb 3.

Gold has been sold off from 1834-1835 to break the 1831 during Asian market open, and it is dropping to 1811-1813. Gold short term trend is bearish and it is dropping heavily

Gold broke the 1831 level during early Asian trading session.

Gold currently has support zones around 1811-1813 and 1800-1805. Gold may make a bounce around these zones before it resumes its short term down trend.

Gold Resistant Zones: 1833-1835, 1843-1845, 1853-1855

Gold Support Zones: 1813-1815, 1800-1805, 1785-1790

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Why gold is back above 1800 after Thanksgiving

Gold broke the 1800-1801 to drop to 1761-1765 before Thanksgiving because of low trading volume and Fed meeting minutes suggested no stimulus package.

Breaking 1800 to drop to 1761-1765
Strong support at 1765 and news of new proposed stimulus causing gold to go above 1809

On Dec 1, 2020 gold made a recovery from 1776 to 1732 because there is news of a new proposed stimulus package which is positive for gold.

On Dec 2, 2020 gold made a spike to 1832 and it is dropping to the 1813-1818 zone wait for more stimulus news.

Gold is waiting for stimulus approval news to go to 1850 if gold cannot drop bellow the 1809-1811 zone. However, gold will drop to 1801 or further to 1789 if the new stimulus package does not get through again.

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Will gold go to 1800

Gold have tested the 1760-1765 long term resistant zone in the last 2 days because the USD is sold off. However, gold has rejected the zone 1760-1765 and it is expected to drop to the 1730-1740 if the USD makes its correction.

Will gold break the 1760-1765 to go to 1800 to continues its short term up trend?

Dec 1 – USDJPY and Gold Trend for Dec 2017

The USDJPY has made a strong bounce from the 110.90-111.00 zone to 112.50 and as a result, gold has been sold off from 1295 to 1270. Gold is currently going up or down following the USDJPY and it has been moving from the range 1265-1295 for many days.

Gold is expected to trade choppy from 1265-1295 until it breaks out of this range to start a new trend. The US Dec rate hike may be an event to trigger a break of the 1265 so that gold will drop to 1220 or gold will move to 1350 if the market returns to safe asset because of North Korea tension or a crash of UK stock market.

Nov 28, 2017 – US GDP Report and Gold Trend

Mr. Powell has confirmed the continuation of current Fed monetary policy which means that the Fed will raise interest rate in Dec, 2017.  The USD has been up since then and which makes gold failing to break the 1296-1297 zone.  Gold is currently moving up or down following the USDJPY and the USD GDP report at 13:30 GMT.

North Korea made an ICBM test yesterday, but gold didn’t go up as a safe heaven assets. Gold is following USD index and if the USDJPY confirms a bottom around 110.90-111.00 then gold will drop to test the 1265-1270 soon.

The 1291-1293 is an important zone to watch for gold down trend. Gold will be sold off to 1283-1285 if it can break the 1291-1293 before the US GDP Report at 13:30 GMT.

A bad US GDP Report release will make USDJPY to get sold off and gold will move to 1305-1307 and further.

Will gold break the 1295-1300?

Gold has dropped from 1355 to 1265 when the Korea news faded. and Gold has been trading from 1265 to 1295 for many days. Every time gold moved to 1295 it got strong sold off, however gold has a big chance to break the 1295 this time because it is going up instead of dropping down when there is news of US interest rate hike Dec 2017.

 

A successful break-out of the 1295 will start a new trend and gold will move up to test the 1350-1355. However, gold will drop to test the 126–1265 one if it fails to break the 1295-1300.

There is US Holiday this weekend and strong volatile is expected to during this period – a strong up or down movement may happen this time